In a usual offseason, the reunion between the Phillies and pitcher Aaron Nola might have qualified as the first domino of deals. Nola returned to the Phillies on a seven-year, $172 million contract, the first marker placed in a free-agent market loaded with other pitchers. A flurry of activity might have followed.
But this is not the usual offseason, not with Shohei Ohtani on the market. The presence of Ohtani looms above all else this winter. Several players have already signed, and plenty of others will also sign before Ohtani does. Yet this winter will not be clarified until Ohtani picks his next destination. With so many of the big-market teams in the hunt, that reality pervades every other free-agent discussion.
Even so, some rituals must continue. With that in mind, and with Black Friday upon us, we are continuing our annual tradition of offering each club a free-agent deal it could make to improve for 2024. As always, this is an imperfect exercise. Our choices rely upon a combination of reporting, intuition, wish-casting, and, on the rarest of occasions, a little bit of trolling. We’re trying to have some fun. Hope you enjoy.
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Kolten Wong, 2B
The Athletics are slated to play another season of Major League Baseball in 2024, and so we must include them in this exercise. The team has already acquired a pair of familiar infielders, in the form of Abraham Toro and Miguel Andujar. Wong fits a similar profile, albeit with a far longer track record of big-league success. If he seeks a starting job, Oakland might be one of the few clubs willing to offer it, after Wong posted a .519 OPS in 2023.
Zack Greinke, SP
Nothing wrong with keeping the Royals-Greinke connection going. (Denny Medley / USA Today)Play the hits. We considered listing someone like Craig Kimbrel, after the success the Royals had last year signing Aroldis Chapman and flipping him midseason for starting pitcher Cole Ragans. Perhaps Nick Anderson, a former relief ace with Tampa Bay, can play that part in 2024. Greinke may decide to retire. But if he wants to keep going, this is the spot for him.
Eric Lauer, SP
Lauer, a 28-year-old former first-round pick, had two strong seasons for Milwaukee in 2021 and 2022 before injuring his shoulder and bottoming out in 2023. He elected free agency after the Brewers removed him from the 40-man roster in October. The Rockies always need more pitching. (Please ignore his 12.73 career ERA at Coors Field. He’s due for some regression.)
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Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF
Merrifield, a three-time All-Star, remains a useful contributor in a utility role. He rotated between second base and left field for Toronto in 2023. He played for White Sox manager Pedro Grifol in Kansas City, where he formed a double-play combination with Nicky Lopez, the new shortstop in Chicago.
Lucas Giolito, SP
Everyone knows the Cardinals need starting pitchers who miss bats. Everyone knows the team has money to spend. And yet everyone knows the team has been wary of wading into significant free-agent bidding in recent years. And so you have an offseason that begins with Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, who profile as complementary pitchers rather than front-line starters. Let’s add another to the bucket, in the form of Giolito, who classifies as a reclamation project after a disastrous platform season.
Rhys Hoskins, 1B
Hoskins missed the entirety of 2023 after tearing his ACL during spring training. Before the injury, he was a consistent hitter with power and patience for the Phillies. The Nationals are well-positioned to offer Hoskins a pillow contract to springboard him back into the market if he can demonstrate good health and renewed success in 2024. The team could also use a veteran to provide ballast for its youthful lineup.
Frankie Montas, SP
This feels like something the Angels might do. They could also still sign Shohei Ohtani. The franchise’s range of outcomes this winter is vast.
New York Mets (75-87)
Justin Turner, IF/DH
Justin Turner showed he could still rake with the Red Sox in 2022. Can he play the field as well? (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)David Stearns showed some interest in signing Turner with the Brewers a few years ago. If the Mets are serious about mostly sitting out this free-agent season, Turner would offer a serious short-term boost to the club’s infield rotation. He did not play much third base in Boston last season, but finished his tenure in Los Angeles as still playable at the position. His value, of course, is his bat, which could plug a hole at designated hitter. And, of course, a return to Queens would perhaps ease the sting felt by Mets fans watching him flourish with the Dodgers after the Mets cast him aside.
Jack Flaherty, SP
It would be cool to see if Cleveland’s vaunted pitching infrastructure could help revive Flaherty, who once looked like one of the best young pitchers in the sport. Perhaps they could reshape his slider into the weapon it was in 2018 and 2019. Most likely, the Guardians won’t do much of anything in free agency, but this exercise demands all teams participate.
Jason Heyward, OF
The Pirates pushed to sign veterans like Rich Hill and Carlos Santana last winter, hoping their experience could aid the team’s incoming fleet of prospects. They could take a similar approach with Heyward, who excelled in a platoon role for the Dodgers last season. Heyward has always been an excellent defender and a noted boost for any clubhouse. But in 2023 he started to hit again, especially against right-handed pitchers.
Jordan Montgomery, SP
Montgomery boosted himself into a deal likely worth nine figures after an excellent postseason for Texas. A pitcher once considered unlikely to start in October for the Yankees, Montgomery supplied a 2.90 ERA in six appearances for the Rangers, including a crucial relief appearance as Max Scherzer was coming undone in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series. Montgomery still profiles as more of a No. 3 starter than a No. 1, but his floor is elevated. Since 2021, he has made 94 starts with a 3.48 ERA and a 3.62 FIP.
Luis Severino, SP
Severino underwent tremendous struggles in his final season as a Yankee. But he still retains elite fastball velocity, and could benefit from a transition into a relief role. The Tigers need arms.
Cody Bellinger, CF
The Giants quite clearly need to acquire the sort of player whose poster they can hang outside Oracle Park. There are plenty of reasons to worry about Bellinger. His offensive approach has been inconsistent. He has dealt with injuries throughout his career, including a two-season stretch effectively wrecked by various woes in 2021 and 2022. But when he is right, as he was for the Cubs in 2023, Bellinger is a five-tool force, capable of playing strong defense in center field while hitting for power. He stole a career-best 20 bases last season while supplying 26 homers and an .881 OPS. San Francisco has to gamble on getting that type of player.
Eduardo Rodriguez, SP
The Reds are lurking in the starting pitching market, and for good reason. The lineup looks solid. The rotation looks suspect. Rodriguez pitched well enough in 2023 — with a 3.30 ERA and a 3.66 FIP in 152 2/3 innings — that he can expect a new deal worth more than the three years and $49 million remaining on his contract with the Tigers.
New York Yankees (82-80)
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, SP
The Big Apple bidding war for Yamamoto could be fierce, as both New York clubs (and the Red Sox) make sense as a destination. He has been an ace in Japan, winning Nippon Professional Baseball’s Sawamura Award, the equivalent of the Cy Young, in 2021 and 2022. The Yankees expect to contend in 2024 and the rotation could use some upgrades. Even if the early returns on last year’s deal for Carlos Rodón look shaky, the franchise can afford to spend again. They are, after all, the Yankees.
Wade Miley, SP
It is a tumultuous time for the Padres, as the franchise is still mourning the death of beloved owner Peter Seidler. After a disheartening 2023 campaign amid questions about the team’s finances, San Diego is not expected to be a major player in free agency, as it was last winter. But the rotation still needs arms. Lots of arms. Pick a name off the pile: Lucas Giolito, Luis Severino, Michael Lorenzen, Tyler Mahle, Alex Wood. Miley has dealt with a bunch of injuries and never had elite stuff. But when he’s pitched the last three seasons, he tends to get people out.
Chicago Cubs (83-79)
Shota Imanaga, SP
After luring Craig Counsell from Milwaukee, the Cubs are expected to be around the rim on a variety of top free agents this winter. Of course, the club would love to win the bidding for Shohei Ohtani. They will almost certainly land one of the starting pitchers, which is the deepest group on this market. Imanaga has not yet officially been posted by the Yokohama DeNA BayStars, but he is still expected to make the jump this winter, where scouts believe his changeup will be able to fool big-league hitters.
Teoscar Hernández, OF
Hernandez could easily slot into right field for Miami, unless new head honcho Peter Bendix wants to give another 600 plate appearances to Bryan De La Cruz. Bendix came from Tampa Bay, where the Rays rarely made unnecessary forays into free agency, but let’s operate under the working assumption that owner Bruce Sherman will authorize some spending. Hernández did not have a strong platform season in Seattle, but across the past three years he has averaged 31 homers with an .803 OPS.
Seth Lugo, SP
The plucky Diamondbacks will need help for their starting rotation — you can’t build an entire season out of running a bullpen game every fourth and fifth day. After spending seven seasons mostly as a reliever with the Mets, Lugo went to San Diego to prove he could start. He succeeded, with a 3.57 ERA in 26 outings, all of them as a starter. He could occupy a place in Arizona’s rotation behind Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, as the team still looks for full-season success from younger pitchers such as Brandon Pfaadt, Ryne Nelson and Tommy Henry.
Marcus Stroman, SP
Stroman was pushing toward a massive payday, either in the form of an extension with the Cubs or on the open market, before suffering a rib cartilage fracture that cost him all of August and the first half of September. His performance tailed off in the second half as he dealt with his injury. He has been an effective, efficient starter capable of generating outs on the ground for several years. Since 2019, Stroman’s 3.38 ERA ranks 12th among pitchers who have thrown at least 600 innings. He could help Minnesota replace Sonny Gray.
Tommy Pham, LF/DH
Tommy Pham provided thump and fire as the Diamondbacks made their World Series run. (Jerome Miron / USA Today)Pham drew raves during his time in Arizona, where the Diamondbacks used him in the middle of the lineup en route to a World Series run. He dealt with a case of turf toe that limited his mobility, but is still a solid runner and fielder when healthy. His presence would aid the club against left-handed pitchers, too.
Matt Chapman, 3B
Chapman, who will turn 31 in April, makes for an interesting free-agent case. He is still a good fielder at third base, but appears to be less of the defensive force he was in his late 20s with Oakland. He manages to put forth above-average offensive production, but he’s prone to strikeouts and has batted .226 since 2020. There are some clear red flags. But Chapman enjoyed his time in Toronto and the Blue Jays figure to contend for the postseason again in 2024. A reunion makes a lot of sense.
Philadelphia Phillies (90-72)
Josh Hader, RP
With Aaron Nola back in the fold, Dave Dombrowski and John Middleton have accomplished their primary offseason goal. How about adding the most dynamic reliever on the market as an added bonus? The Craig Kimbrel experiment ended disastrously in this past year’s National League Championship Series. The presence of Hader, whose contract may exceed Edwin Díaz’s $102 million deal with the Mets, would certainly aid manager Rob Thomson. Hader has shied away from multi-inning usage in recent years, but now that he is no longer judged by the vagaries of the arbitration system, which values saves above all for relievers, that could change.
Texas Rangers (90-72)
Shohei Ohtani, DH/SP
The Dodgers are still the favorites for Ohtani, in the sense that a lot of folks expect Ohtani to land there. Who can say? Ohtani has never really done what folks expect him to do. Who knows? Could be fun. He’s never played in the postseason in the majors, and Texas could take him higher.
Hector Neris, RP
A consistent theme for Houston is keeping the band together, at least for as long as Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker are all on the roster. That may change after 2024. So might as well bring back Neris, who cut down on his walks and dominated hitters during the previous two seasons in Houston. Might as well bring back catcher Martín Maldonado, too.
Milwaukee Brewers (92-70)
Brandon Belt, 1B
Some teams make this exercise harder than others. The Brewers might just try to bring back Carlos Santana, who enlivened their lineup after his midseason acquisition. Belt is unlikely to remain healthy for a full season. He hasn’t played more than 150 games since 2019. But he can still mash. He swatted 19 homers in 103 games for Toronto in 2023. Milwaukee can always use more offense.
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Tampa Bay Rays (99-63)
Mitch Garver, C/DH
Garver offers experience and offensive potential as a catcher, which the Rays could use. He could also take at-bats as the designated hitter. The Rays have a bunch of useful players who cycle through the DH spot, but the Rangers just won a World Series with Garver batting in the heart of the lineup.
Los Angeles Dodgers (100-62)
Blake Snell, SP
The Dodgers need rotation help. Clayton Kershaw may miss the season as he recovers from shoulder surgery. Julio Urías won’t be around. Walker Buehler is returning from his second Tommy John surgery. The prospect group of Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove and Gavin Stone showed signs of promise but also demonstrated they were not ready for prime time in 2023. Snell would fit perfectly atop this rotation. The Dodgers value rate-based performers, and Snell might be the premier rate-based pitcher of his class, with a 2.25 ERA in 180 innings last season.
Kenta Maeda, SP
The biggest obstacle Baltimore faces in 2024 will likely be regression, as the club thrived in one-run games en route to a first-place finish in the American League East. The lineup looks set. The bullpen was excellent. The top of the rotation should be fine, especially if you believe in the long-term viability of Grayson Rodriguez. The back half of the rotation could use a boost, though. Maeda comes with the added bonus of being a capable reliever in October.
Sonny Gray, SP
They showed early interest in Aaron Nola, who opted to return to Philadelphia. They are likely to be involved in the bidding for all the other top free-agent arms. And while Atlanta may not be willing to meet the price for two-time Cy Young award winner Blake Snell, the Braves should be well-positioned to scoop up someone like Gray, who finished second in the American League Cy Young voting in 2023. Since leaving the Yankees after the 2018 season, Gray has struck out 9.8 batters per nine innings with a 138 ERA+.
(Top photo of Snell: Gregory Bull / Associated Press)
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