We’re not quite to the point where Carson Beck gets better at something every time he takes a dropback, but it kind of feels like that.
The Georgia fourth-year junior is improving (rapidly) week to week — and has been all year. The latest example: a sparkling 24-of-30, 298-yard, three-touchdown performance Saturday in a 38-10 win at Tennessee.
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Everything about Beck’s box score this year is great: 3,320 yards, 21 touchdowns to just five picks, a 72.9 percent completion rate. When you dig deeper, though, you also see a QB who probably should be more involved in the Heisman Trophy discussion and deserves to be rising up NFL draft boards.
Beck, a first-year starter in the most high-pressure job college football currently has, rates No. 5 nationally in EPA/dropback (.45) and No. 8 in EPA/dropback with pressure. The only Power 5 quarterbacks who have been better against pressure this season are Oregon’s Bo Nix, LSU’s Jayden Daniels and Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel — all multiyear starters, two of whom (Nix and Daniels) are Heisman front-runners.
Two even more impressive numbers highlight Beck’s accuracy and processing skills at age 21, however. He’s No. 5 nationally in off-target rate (just 8.6 percent) and No. 1 in average time to throw (2.22 seconds).
Beck’s air yards per attempt (8.0) is a bit lower than the national average of 8.8, but it’s considerably higher than QBs who play in more horizontal offenses. (Nix’s number, for example, is 7.0.) The only college quarterback who can claim to be more accurate with a higher air-yard number is Louisville sixth-year QB Jack Plummer.
Number 3 through the air for @carsonbeck01
Watch live on CBS#GoDawgs
— Georgia Football (@GeorgiaFootball) November 18, 2023
Not only is Beck delivering an accurate ball at every level, he’s doing it quickly and without hesitation. Saturday’s win also showed Beck’s maturation against pressure, as he was able to step up into the pocket — rather than fading from rushers — before using his feet to extend an early scoring drive. He kept Georgia’s offense moving with his arm at times when the run wasn’t as consistent as the Bulldogs might like.
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He’s calm. He has a presence on the field. He’s 6 feet 4. There’s a ton to like.
From an NFL Draft standpoint, there are two discussions about Beck: Could he be QB3 for the 2024 draft or is he an early favorite to be QB1 for 2025? Georgia and its name, image and likeness operation certainly will make any decision Beck has after the season about turning pro a difficult one. But rest assured, if he seeks NFL feedback, he’s going to get really good answers.
The longer the season has gone on, the better Beck has played. He’s been undeniably good and one of the most consistent players in America this season. Georgia’s three-peat odds look much better because of him.
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Rising: Bo Nix, Oregon
For my money, Daniels has been the best quarterback in the country through 11 games. Nix deserves to be No. 2.
The Oregon senior did not have his best game in a thrilling loss to Washington earlier in the year, but that’s not to say he played poorly. He didn’t, but the standard Nix has set for himself in just about every other appearance this year — especially down the stretch — has been top-shelf.
Nix’s accuracy since the Washington game has been outstanding, perhaps the best stretch of his career. He’s made more plays vertically, too, as Oregon’s hardly just relied on the quick game with him. Nix has totaled 10 touchdowns and zero interceptions the last two weeks in wins over USC and Arizona State.
In both games, his off-target percentage was below 3.5 — which is ridiculous. Stock up.
An unreal first half from Bo Nix 🔥🦆
6 TDs | 22/27 | 381 Pass Yards pic.twitter.com/lMZgCCNKWj
— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 18, 2023
New category here because it’s hard to say McCarthy is “falling,” as there are a lot of things happening at Michigan beyond his control. In any event, his play has dipped over the last three weeks, beginning with Michigan’s win over Purdue in early November.
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That was an up-and-down game, with some accuracy and processing issues sprinkled in. He did what he was asked a week later in Michigan’s win at Penn State, which wasn’t much (he attempted only eight passes). Saturday’s nail-biter at Maryland, though, was McCarthy’s worst game of the year by dropback success rate (37 percent, his lowest number since a loss at Michigan State in 2021).
He was guilty of forcing throws without completely reading the coverage, including having one picked in the end zone and another that should’ve been an interception later. McCarthy rightly has been in the QB3 conversation all year and remains so, but Saturday’s showdown against Ohio State will have the final say in all that.
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Washington remains undefeated, and the Huskies just made it through a brutal three-game stretch with wins against USC, Utah and Oregon State, so it’s not as if Penix is coming undone. However, his play has fallen off in a number of areas since his red-hot start — specifically, with regard to his accuracy.
Washington has put together full team efforts a number of times and is one of the stoutest clubs in the country, with legit NFL talent (Penix included) on both sides of the ball. Still, Penix had his two worst days of the year from an accuracy standpoint in the last two weeks versus Utah (24-of-42, 332 yards) and Oregon State (13-of-28, 162 yards).
He’s remained very solid against pressure, and he’s not turning the ball over. From an NFL prospect standpoint, though, many of the concerns we voiced about Penix’s game earlier this year have shown true on film throughout the second half.
Other performances of note:
Cameron Ward, Washington State: 18-of-30, 288 yards, four TDs
Ward had a clean game on the stat sheet against Colorado, but he also flashed some trouble with pressure and had some accuracy problems again. There is a lot of potential here, and Ward, an Incarnate Word transfer, might benefit from another year of seasoning before taking a jump. We’ll see, though.
Caleb Williams, USC: 31-of-42, 384 yards, one TD, one INT
A disappointing end to Williams’ season (and perhaps his final game at USC) with a loss to UCLA. It was a pretty standard performance for Williams based on what we’ve seen from USC this year. Williams has things to work on — ball security and knowing when to let a play go, to name a couple — but most of USC’s issues this season were about other things.
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Still, there were too many off-target throws from Williams on Saturday, even if he was doing all he could.
Drake Maye, North Carolina: 16-of-36, 209 yards, one TD, one INT
Not a great day for Maye in a loss to Clemson and its very talented defense. Maye’s season, much like Williams’, has been hindered by inconsistency around him. Many of Maye’s worst days were hurt by drops, though there were just two in this game.
Maye’s physical talent is undeniable, and so much of his year has been about him trying to be superman. He was pressured 14 times Saturday, so the Tar Heels’ loss was no exception to that trend.
(Illustration: Sean Reilly / The Athletic; photo of Carson Beck: Jeffrey Vest / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
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